I love British newspapers and all the innovation taking place across the pond. That is no secret, but when I read a blog on The Guardian web site by Roy Greenslade I was surprised, to say the least, not by his blog, but by the comments of one smart reader responding to his blog. Mr. Greeslade repeated on his blog on Thursday March 13 the same arguments I have been hearing from all the prophets of doom and gloom about the demise of print and print companies because their stock market prices are going down. He wrote
I am often accused of taking too negative a view of the future of newspapers. One commenter this week said I should stick up for our own trade instead of appearing to relish its death. But, as I said in response, I am merely recording what is happening and, based on that reality, predicting what will happen. In the face of the depressing truth, even if I was to “talk up” newspapers, it wouldn’t make a blind bit of difference.
At the risk of repeating that overworked phrase – it’s the economy, stupid – I base my views on the flight of advertising revenue and declines in circulation, another revenue drain. Investors, needless to say, are doing the same. So let’s take a look at some up-to-date facts from across the developed world that illustrate the parlous state of newspaper publishing.
I’ll start with the media sector on the British stock market. Shares in the Daily Mail & General Trust, publisher of two national titles that are regarded as the nation’s most successful papers of the past two decades, go on falling week by week. The Daily Mail ‘A’ ordinary share price today stands at 435p, down from its 52-week high of 875p, a decline of more than 50%.
To read the rest of his blog click here.
One reader responded to the Mr. Greenslade blog by writing:
Using newspaper company share prices – and therefore investor confidence – as a proxy for long-term structural fortunes is an interesting approach. But given that Google’s share price is also down almost 50% from its 52-week high, doesn’t your method imply that Google is facing a comparable fundamental structural challenge? Not that I mean to dispute your conclusion – newspapers in many markets clearly are facing the sort of challenges you describe. But I’m not sure investor confidence is a good measure for that, given that the same thing is also going on with the share price of the main winner from the shift of attention, and therefore ad revenues, to the web.
Need I comment? I don’t think so. However, what surprised me even more came from Mr. Greensdale himself the next day. In his Friday’s March 14 blog he describes his journey into the heart of Rupert Murdoch’s new print heaven. Mr. Greensdale wrote
For once the word “awesome” is justified. It is, without any shade of doubt, the most amazing newspaper publishing factory I’ve seen since I started in the business on a weekly in 1963.
Superlatives fail. It is the biggest, most efficient, least labour-intensive press plant in the world.
To read his record of the visit click here. What a difference one day makes…
Mr. Magazine 